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Volcanic Ash Threat in Europe was All a 'Mistake', Authorities Say
Published April 20, 2010 by:
Luis R. Miranda
Once Again Computer Models Did the Trick for Scientists
It was not a volcano or its ash what caused major disruptions in air travel for the past several days, but a bunch of flawed computer models scientists used to forecast how the volcanic eruption would affect air travel throughout the European continent. As reported yesterday, other reasons are being looked at to explain why flights were suspended if the famous ash cloud did not reach Europe in the way it was originally described. Today, authorities are blaming defective computer models and not the volcanic eruption.
According to Matthias Ruete, director general for mobility and transport in Europe, the computer models used to make a decision on whether or not the air space would remain open, were flawed due to the fact scientists used incomplete science and limited data. The closure of air space, which caused great disruption in passenger and cargo transport from and to the old continent, stranding thousands of people and amounting to loses of hundreds of millions of dollars per day, does not come as a surprise. Scientists who claim that man causes global warming, also based their calculations and forecasts on flawed, incomplete and dubious data. This was discovered when e-mails and documents from the University of East Anglia were let out on the web.
"It is a black box in certain areas," Matthias Ruete, said, asserting that the assumptions used in the models were not based on scientific evidence. Apparently, authorities in Europe were not sure about certain issues and questions involving the amount of ash at specific heights and places, how hazardous it would be and the rate at which the ash would fall from the sky. "It's one of the elements where, as far as I know, we're not quite clear about it," he revealed.
As reported yesterday, some airlines even conducted test flights in order to determine whether their planes would be able to withstand the effects of the now confirmed fictitious ash. Companies like KLM, Air France and Lufthansa sent planes up and all indications pointed out that the risk was minimum or none.
It appears that scientists and authorities decided to close air space, and in the process cause grave stress to an economic system that is already shaky. The current levels of outstanding debt many of the companies that revolve around commerce and air travel as well as that of European and other governments provides very little margin of error for this kind of mistakes, however those who oversee air safety did not take that into account when making up their minds about what to do with transatlantic flights.
This computer model errors along with poor judgment still do not explain why if there was any kind of threat to air travel, military planes from European countries and the U.S. maintained and still continue to execute exercises that are part of the Brilliant Ardent 10 program. The admittance of wrongdoing does not explain if and how the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) may have influenced on weather patterns, plate tectonics or volcanic activity. We tried to obtain information from Dr. David H. Hathaway, a NASA scientist and expert in CME, but he has not returned our e-mail. "If you take the situation across the Atlantic, there the advice would probably be: don't fly over the volcano. Otherwise, it is up to you to take the precautions necessary," Mr Ruete said. Many people are now calling for the adoption of standards used in the United States, where it is up to the airlines to decide whether it is safe to fly or not. European standards establish that member states have the prerogative to make those decisions, but all decisions made for the past week have been made by computer models, it seems. Unfortunately, computers cannot be fired.
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Coronal Mass Ejection is the Issue in Europe, Not a Volcanic Ash Cloud
Published April 19, 2010 by:
Luis R. Miranda
It is Just Not Coincidental that Three Significant Events Occurred at the Same Time. The Volcanic Eruption, the Military Exercise and the Coronal Mass Ejections
It is of everyone's knowledge the kind of disruptions the volcanic eruption in Iceland caused to international travel in Europe. Due to this eruption and the huge amount of ash reported to be coming out of the volcano, it is understandable that air space is closed for the safety of the people who intended to make their ways around the continent and across the Atlantic Ocean. However, some information has come to my attention that I think is important to share with the public, since the authorities are not doing it.
Although, as I mentioned before, air travel is banned for the moment, there are some facts that do not follow the same trend. For example, why is the Keflavic International Airport in Iceland still open? Is the real disruptor of air transport really volcanic ash or a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)? Is European airspace being kept clear to prevent people seeing something significant out of aircraft windows? Is European airspace being kept clear for military defensive purposes or for military offensive purposes? Whose military?
Volcanic eruptions are nothing rare nowadays. Volcanic activity is seen daily around the world, and there are volcanoes erupting daily around the globe. So why is this particular eruption so special? Maybe it's not. There is another event happening at the same time this eruption is taking place. A large NATO Live Exercise originated out of Germany on April 12 and running up until April 22 is also taking place in European airspace. The exercise includes participants like the U.S. Air Force stationed in Germany and other places in the old continent.
Reports from Germany, Austria and other locations in Europe reported clear and blue skies up to April 17, as it can be seen in this image dated April 17, 2010. Enter the following report from rumormillnews.com.
"In Germany we experienced the most beautiful day of the year. No clouds, clear sky, not the slightest sign of dust or ash in the atmosphere. To confirm my own observation I checked the www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/ 1200 UTC satellite picture with the same result: A large high pressure area stretching from England and France via the North Sea, Germany, the Alps all the way across Poland to the Russian border with winds from the east in central Germany. You can see the Sat Pic via the link below."
This information contradicts the ash cloud forecast to engulf all European airspace. Air space over Ramstein Airforce Base in Germany has also remained opened throughout the emergency. Ramstein is the main location from which operations in the Middle East are coordinated. There have not been any interruptions in the operations conducted at Ramstein, as military airplanes seem to be able to cope with volcanic ash. German Airline Lufthansa conducted several flights in order to test the possibility of restarting normal transportation activity. The result of those tests were no damage or any other problems for the aircraft.
"In addition to air assets, tactical employment of Theater Missile Defense and Ground Based Air Defense assets will be extensively exercised." Missile defense is a system, weapon, or technology involved in the detection, tracking, interception and destruction of attacking missiles. Originally conceived as a defense against nuclear-armed Intercontinental ballistic missiles, its application has broadened to include shorter-ranged non-nuclear tactical and theater missiles", continues the report.
May these military exercises be related to a Coronal Mass Ejections? Well, one has to say it is just coincidental that three significant events occurred at the same time. The volcanic eruption, the military exercise and the coronal mass ejections. See Coronal Mass Ejection from April 13, 2010. According to the Solar Influences Data Center, significant solar activity is expected to occur between 2010 and 2012 and some of it was expected to happen beginning April 14. Find the report here.
"A Coronal Mass Ejection or CME linked to the eruption of a polar crown filament was detected on April 13 by LASCO and other coronagraphs. It is partially halo, with a main propagation direction to the North of the ecliptic plane. There is a risk that the southern flank of the CME crosses the Earth, triggering enhanced geomagnetic activity, not before late April 16 or more likely on April 17."Although air travel is supposed to be interrupted for several more days, reports issued as late as Sunday expressed the possibility that some flight activity would resume on Monday April 17. Is this also a coincidence? The solar activity was supposed to end on April 17, was it not? Also, note that although the volcanic eruption is real and the ash is real too, no image shown anywhere has confirmed the massive cloud of ash all over Europe as it has been reported by the main stream media. Vasts areas of the continent have remained clear throughout the emergency. So why close most European Air Space? Please stay tuned for more details.
NASA. Coronal Mass Ejections
Operation Brilliant Ardent 10
Europe Satellite Image April 17, 2010
Dundee Satellite Receiving Station
Ash Cloud Forecast over Europe
Coronal Mass Ejection April 13, 2010
Solar Influences Data Analysis Center